College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: ‘All the Money is Coming in On Texas’

The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don’t seem to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.

“All the money is being available in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Keep in mind that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ challenger, Arizona State – the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups – is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State – which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas – to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “really respected gamer.”

Although reputable cash has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.

“We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn’t the only game in the area. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

“We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s remained,” Gable said. “It’s decent two-way action at that number today. The total has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55.”

He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.

Although Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.